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Where to for currencies? Your latest Spread Betting Companies guidance note PDF Print E-mail
Written by Will Peters   
Friday, 16 September 2011 13:47

Spread Betting Companies notes that RBS is bearish on both the US Dollar and Euro.


RBS have told Spread Betting Companies that the EUR is expected to exhibit weakness, perhaps even greater than the USD, leading to a gradual, modest further EUR decline versus a variety of currencies during the months ahead.

"December could be a particularly challenging month for the EUR, with uncertainty over ongoing political support for financing sovereign debt through an expanded EFSF. We expect EUR weakness will be great enough to push EUR/USD just below 1.35 during 1H2012," say RBS in a currencies note released today.

GBP, however, should remain insulated from many of the Euro zone negatives, allowing it to creep higher versus a weak EUR and soft USD.

The AUD and NZD are expected to post modest appreciation versus a soft USD into 2012, modest gains in addition to a higher yield.

While Spread Betting Companies notes that the RBS Asian Economics team recently revised lower their growth forecasts for the region, those forecasts remain well above growth trends in the developed world, leaving the AUD and NZD well-positioned to grow with the region. The CAD, however, in unlikely to post meaningful gains as its main export market – the US – exhibits lackluster growth momentum.

"Within the emerging world, Asian currencies are expected to maintain their slow upward crawl versus most developed currencies. While a more rapid appreciation of the CNY would help moderate inflation pressures – as would a similar appreciation of other Asian EM currencies – as yet the Chinese authorities appear to be holding to the 5% or so appreciation pace of the last 14 months. If that pace of appreciation changes, we believe it is more likely that it accelerates, rather than decelerates, into 2012, assuming the developed world avoids renewed recession," says RBS.
 

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